Mehr News Agency,International Desk: The Zangazur corridor entered a new phase following the meeting between Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev at the White House,mediated by Donald Trump. Both parties signed a “peace declaration” and commercial-security agreements, launching the connection route between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan known as the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). Tehran stresses that any violation of the Iran-Armenia border or geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus are red lines and has warned about the transit and security consequences of this plan. Simultaneously occurring, the peace treaty remains unresolved due to two main issues: removing “Karabakh” from Armenia’s constitution and establishing governance/security mechanisms for the corridor.
In this context,Mehr’s correspondent spoke with Mohsen Pak Aeen,a political analyst and former diplomat,to examine the dimensions and implications of the Zangazur corridor for Iran’s national interests,regional balance in the Caucasus,and Tehran’s diplomatic options. The full interview follows:
How do you assess current political-security conditions in the South Caucasus? What is Iran’s position within these developments?
After Karabakh was liberated and returned to Azerbaijan’s control, a new security architecture is emerging in which a discourse of peace predominates across this region. Following a quadrilateral summit held within Europe’s Political Community leaders’ meeting in October 2022 in Prague-attended by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; French President Emmanuel Macron; Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan; and European Council President Charles michel-the final statement affirmed both Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s commitments to uphold UN principles. They recognized each other’s territorial integrity sovereignty while reaffirming their adherence to Almaty Declaration of 1991.
The Almaty Declaration signed on December 21, 1991 after Soviet Union dissolution obliged member states-including Azerbaijan and Armenia-to recognize each other’s borders as inviolable international boundaries. Following this framework Karabakh returned under Azerbaijani jurisdiction while Armenia accepted Azerbaijani sovereignty over what is known as Zangazur corridor. this effectively nullified azerbaijan’s previous territorial claims on Zangazur which had raised concerns about cutting Iran-Armenia border links. Currently peace negotiations between these two countries have progressed steadily with an vital growth being their decision to negotiate directly without intermediaries.
What do you foresee as potential consequences of establishing Zangazur corridor for various regional actors?
The U.S.’ strategic objective is clearly aimed at weakening and isolating Iran within this broader sphere-it leaves there’s no doubt whatsoever there. However, Iran shares over 400 kilometers of frontier along Aras River with South Caucasus states-the longest stretch among all countries bordering Southern Caucasus-and wields unrivaled influence over these routes. No external power can exercise specific initiatives antagonistic toward Iran here undeterred; Western nations venturing into this area risk “entering into lion’s mouth”-exposing themselves seriously to vulnerabilities.
Washington will avoid direct military engagement against any regional actor here-as it refrained from direct conflict involvement vis-à-vis Russia-Ukraine war-but rather aims at dragging local players into contention against Moscow by fostering confrontation dynamics especially amid cooling ties between Russia on one side with Armenia & Azerbaijan on another side recently witnessed discrepancies escalate tensions sharply throughout region alongside Russian stern responses alarmed by intrusive stakes posed therein.
Russia remains resolute not relinquishing hold on it’s strategically significant foothold across South Caucasus despite pressures faced now evidently unless Moscow steps back entirely-Iran alone can counterbalance American ambitions effectively should Russia stay passive.
Considering recent visit by Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister to Tehran – what achievements could emerge from bilateral talks? Could it influence broader developments related to Southern Caucasus file?
Naturally at present we should engage diplomatically with Armenia but also Azerbaijan plus Russia together.
During consultations with Armenian Deputy foreign Minister Tehran welcomed moves towards peace normalization between Yerevan & Baku alongside affirming readiness supporting reopening blocked transport links stressing such corridors must not alter regional geopolitics nor interrupt Iranian access routes elsewhere.
Additionally officials underlined opposition towards American presence since introduction would jeopardize stability & security meanwhile Armenians pledged fully accounting mutual interests & stability considerations involving shared frontiers besides emphasizing absence foreign military/security instruments exercising control regarding project implementation related specifically zone named Zangazur.
This approach highlights vigilance required restricting potential US maneuvers allegedly cloaked behind investment endeavors or peace promotion claims harboring hegemonic intents targeting wider scope situated deep inside Southern Caucasus realm.
If Azerbaijan insists on advancing its plans concerning Zangazur corridor how might Iran respond diplomatically or pursue alternative measures?
Primarily our approach lies through sincere diplomatic dialog cooperating closely alongside all key stakeholders including Azerbaijan itself plus Russia accompanied additionally by Armenia so even Turkey monitoring evolving situation carefully noting risks stemming from American encroachment persistently highlighted simultaneously occurring pushing Yerevan avoid actions potentially disruptive obstructive threatening existing progress nurturing peaceful environment prevailing currently during negotiations thus preserving momentum taking place effortlessly supported through concordant efforts ongoing facilitating negotiation stages successfully executed concluding mutual benefit centric consensus ultimately sought after responsibly attained accordingly secure long-term durable arrangements stabilizing entire zone hosting sensitive ethnic cultural historical complexities thereby upholding firmly established confidence building among involved protagonists favorably progressing or else expected detrimental outcomes prevented efficiently altogether ensuring satisfactory solutions embraced respecting sovereign interests unequivocally guaranteed everywhere involved accordingly maintained sustainably endorsed wholeheartedly continuously ensured beyond doubt foreseeable future consolidation assured steadily reinforced definitively safeguarded permanently safeguarded all concerned parties collective welfare preservation intact guarded uncompromised equally immune confidently sustained forevermore collectively guaranteed meaningfully achieved prudently devised consistently deployed systematically met professionally conducted duly exercised decisively fulfilled thoroughly respected unconditionally adhered strictly observed comprehensively managed carefully nurtured appropriately geared mutually acknowledged collectively honored honestly performed stringently followed meticulously incorporated woefully intangible ultimate consequence considered profoundly contemplated 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