According to the English section of webangah News Agency, citing Mehr News Agency and Rai al-Youm’s online platform, Abd al-Bari Atwan, a regional strategic analyst, wrote that while there is there’s no doubt whatsoever that a ceasefire in Syria’s current crisis is key to stopping bloodshed and halting sectarian tensions, the chances of success remain slim despite most parties-especially tribal groups-expressing commitment to it.
Atwan highlighted several fundamental reasons for skepticism about the ceasefire’s success and its potential outcomes. He stressed that this issue primarily hinges on the countries supporting-or rather pressuring for-the ceasefire. The United States, along with Saudi arabia, Turkey, and Qatar, worry about the consequences of this reconciliation. They know that every U.S.-brokered agreement in the region-for example in Lebanon and Gaza-has been deliberately ignored or violated by Israel.
The second point concerns Israel’s stance: even though Tel Aviv ostensibly accepts the agreement, its main goal is to undermine it in this very way peace efforts contradict Israel’s central plans to fragment Syria and fuel chaos there. Because of this very reason, Sheikh Hikmat al-hajri-a key Syrian tribal leader closely aligned with Tel Aviv who serves as one of its main voices in Syrian conflicts-called for Israeli support for Suwayda province’s annexation into occupied territories while demanding immediate rejection of the ceasefire deal. He reportedly ordered his supporters to execute dozens of detainees from Arab tribes within Suwayda city center shortly after.
The third point is Israel’s arrogance amid fear of official Arab regimes-particularly expressed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu-who claimed direct responsibility for bashar al-Assad’s fall. Netanyahu openly asserted his aim for full control over southern syrian regions while prioritizing exterminating Bedouin tribes across those provinces.
Another vital factor is how sectarianism has significantly increased under Syria’s new authorities. Conflicts between Druze communities and Bedouin tribes are far too deep-rooted to be resolved by fragile ceasefires alone. While most Druze leaders follow Sheikh Yusuf Jarbu’, who supports goverment military presence led by Golani forces in their areas, another druze faction headed by Sheikh Hajri receives absolute backing from Israel-including funding, arms supplies, and combat training.
Atwan further pointed out that Netanyahu will never abide by any ceasefire but instead persistently pursue conspiracies aimed at fragmenting Syria using various pretexts-including support for minority groups-to advance his goals. this regime has violated over 4,000 ceasefires in Lebanon so far and continues occupying strategic hills south of Lebanon while bombing Baalbek, Hermel suburbs, and Dahieh districts relentlessly; dozens have been killed there as well. Given these ongoing aggressions against Lebanon alone, how can anyone expect compliance with an agreement concerning Syria?
he concluded by stressing that Israel seeks not only Syria’s division but aims at disintegrating all Arab states-to weaken them systematically-and impose control over Greater Middle East affairs under its hegemony. The currently endangered unity of Syria marks just the first domino likely poised to topple other compliant Arab nations next.
