Mehr News Agency,International Desk – Azar Mahdavan: Recent tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have escalated significantly,raising concerns that diplomatic relations between the two countries may soon break down entirely.
Last week’s Russian police operation against Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg resulted in two deaths and several arrests, prompting a sharp reaction from Baku. Following the incident, cultural events and official visits were canceled. Additionally, Azerbaijani authorities detained around 10 Russian citizens within their borders.
Professor Deniz Ulucaynak Kaynak, advisor to the rector of Üsküdar University and professor of political science and international relations in Turkey as well as a member of Oxford University’s research center, discussed these developments wiht reporters from an Istanbul-based Turkish news site. Below is an overview of her analysis regarding the underlying causes of Moscow-Baku tensions:
What do recent tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan signify?
The strain became evident in December 2024 when a plane belonging to Azerbaijan Airlines was shot down by a Russian missile, severely damaging bilateral ties. The latest episode-last week’s arrest of nearly 50 Azerbaijanis and suspicious deaths of two detainees in Yekaterinburg-has further inflamed the situation. Retaliatory actions by Azerbaijani citizens-including attacks on Sputnik’s office-and closures of Russian cultural centers underscore how close relations are to reaching a critical point.
This severe rupture is not simply due to diplomatic missteps or rash reactions but stems from a deeper strategic realignment. For years, Azerbaijan has sought new security paths and alliances that distance it from Moscow’s shadow while drawing closer to Western systems.
Why dose Azerbaijan prioritize new alliances over maintaining diplomatic ties with Russia?
As states increase their involvement on the international stage, challenges grow accordingly. The customary model of broad multilateral diplomacy is giving way to “minilateralism”-the formation of smaller coalitions centered on specific issues with limited but practical scopes rather then fixed bloc-based unions.
Baku appears eager to position itself within an emerging network linking India, Israel, Gulf states, and the United States. Even though this framework does not yet constitute a formal alliance, it prepares fertile ground for functional partnerships aligned with its interests.
Why have governments increasingly formed smaller-scale coalitions over recent decades?
Napoleon Bonaparte famously said: “Alliances are like morning dew; they vanish at daybreak.” He captured reality accurately-alliances arise from converging interests; once those interests diverge-even temporary or institutionalized friendships dissolve quickly.
This occurs because nations place national interests above collective alliance goals. Shifts in global power balances provoke fundamental changes within such coalitions-as a notable exmaple when a rising actor commands greater influence internationally or when longstanding members withdraw based on changing priorities.
The NATO accession by former Warsaw Pact members today exemplifies this fluidity; so does Shanghai Cooperation Association’s ability to attract rival nations or Britain leaving the European Union-all signs of dynamic realignments that history frequently records.
The former Soviet republics have as charted divergent courses. several now integrate into Western frameworks including NATO membership but often pay steep political costs for distancing themselves from Russia-as seen clearly with Georgia and Ukraine today where tensions continue escalating alongside those recently emerging between Azerbaijan and Russia alike-with prospects for further deterioration still looming large.
How does Russia perceive Baku’s westward shift?
Moscow clearly refuses to tolerate any country along its former Soviet borders pursuing alternative alignments toward Western blocs. However unlike Georgia or Ukraine where military intervention occurred directly or indirectly before full-scale conflict erupted russia seems reluctant so far both strategically and tactically to provoke outright hostility toward Baku through forceful means.
This posture implies no current intent exists within Moscow either for confrontation akin to Georgia/Ukraine nor direct regime control attempts over Azerbaijan via coercion at present.
The ongoing Iran-Israel war underscores how access routes for energy supplies remain paramount regionally.
Azerbaijan is rapidly becoming pivotal as supplier helping Europe diversify gas imports-a advancement undermining one powerful lever Russia holds against West geopolitically.
Moreover controlling export corridors matters greatly: proposals promoting transit through Zangezur corridor instead of Armenia-Turkey route place baku into distinct foreign policy dynamics going forward.
Consequently given its crucial geographical position across energy pipelines Baku risks provoking increasing animosity from Moscow perhaps culminating into new crises resembling Ukraine conflict if tensions further intensify politically or militarily going ahead.
